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Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Watchlist: UNP, V, EOG, ABX

I caught the flu bug (yet again) and the last few days was busy with Chinese New Year and getting as much rest as I can. But I reckon I didn't miss much action in the stock market as it was pretty much range bound the last few sessions. Today, we'll have the FOMC policy statement and the market should have a clearer direction after this.

No charts today for this post, but here's some stocks you can watch out for:

-Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP): Approaching horizontal resistance at $45-$46. This level also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from prior swing high to low.

-Visa Inc. (NYSE:V): Recorded a new low in recent session. Looking like a bear flag. A successful break & close below $42.5 would indicate another leg lower.

-EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG): Higher lows and support at $60, making of a descending triangle. Watch for break of $60 for confirmation

-Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX): If you're still liking gold, wait for a pullback to about $32.5-$35 in this stock before considering dipping into the uptrend channel.
Edit: Here's 2 complimentary videos from MarketClub:
-ABX Barrick Gold Analysis
-All Wound Up Over Gold

As you know, we're in the midst of the earnings seasons, so please do check earnings date for swing stocks.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Economic Recovery Plan

In case you haven't seen it, here's the Stimulus Package rolled out by the Democrats
Beneficiaries include renewable energy producers, home builders and mortgage lenders; losers include those receiving TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) money e.g Banks, Automakers etc. Read here for more details. Investors should take note of sectors being boosted by Obama's team as focus will shift with the incoming team.

Obama's Inauguration is today (Tue). Let's see how the market reacts...

Friday, January 16, 2009

A Look At Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Daily and Intraday

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been in the news lately due to CEO Steve Jobs's health. On the daily chart above, AAPL has been making lower highs and it tested recent low at around $80 yesterday on news that Steve Jobs is taking medical leave of absence until June. The chart is bearish looking until it can carve out a higher high. If it breaks and close below $80, look to $70 for the next line of support.

On a intraday basis, it gapped down yesterday and bounced from recent low and round number $80. It then went on to re-test it again, printing long lower tails on the 4th and 5th 15min bar, confirming support. It consolidated and broke out with the 12.45pm ET bar. That would be a good entry. With the Fibonacci placed between opening range low and previous day high, look to target 61.8% Fib and 50% Fib. If you did not exit at 50% Fib, a break below 5 min shooting star (not shown) at 2.10am ET would have you out of the trade as well with the downward sloping 50SMA (in orange) acting as substantial resistance. Trader Jamie has a good post here on how to place your Fibonacci for day trades.

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Watch for Pullbacks in Energy Stocks

A Happy New Year to all! I was sick over the new year, hence the inactivity in my blog. But other than this minor hiccup, I look forward to an even more wonderful year ahead!

Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLE) was coiling in a symmetrical triangle formation and broke out on the 1st trading day this year. However, I would caution going long or buying a call option on it now. It has been marching north for the last few sessions and it printed a shooting star at resistance (about $52.5) after gapping up yesterday. If it breaks below previous day low, I expect to see retracement and then it maybe a good time to enter. You can place fibonacci level over previous swing low to the high yesterday to see where the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are.

Above is a chart of United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO). Basically telling the same story. Broke out of downtrend channel with good volume but now facing resistance near $40.

So what we can do now is to monitor XLE, USO and oil related stocks closely for possible retracement, set your alerts and then time for lower risk entry.