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Saturday, May 31, 2008

Where To Get Free Live Crude Oil Charting

Sorry for the absence here. Took advantage of the long weekend to go on a short trip. Hope you all had a good rest and good trading week.

In my earlier post, I talked about Solar & Airline Sector Vs Crude Oil. With oil and gas being in the focus everyday and its negative impact on the equities market, those who are day-trading will find it useful to follow movement of crude oil. While I understand thinkorswim is planning to have the crude oil futures data soon, they gave no time frame as to when it is expected to be release. Not wanting to sit around to wait especially with oil moving inversely to the market, I went around looking for FREE live oil data charting. I found one at livecharts.co.uk and it has served its purpose pretty well. Do take note that the timing of their charts are based on UK time. If you know of another source to get free live oil charting, please leave a comment here and I will compile a list for readers. Thanks!

Economic calendar for next week:

Construction Spending, ISM Index

Tue: Factory Orders
Notable earnings: GES, TOL

ADP Employment, Productivity, ISM Service
Notable earnings: HOV, VIP, PSS

Thurs: Initial Claims, ECB Press Conference
Notable earnings: FMCN

Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Wholesale Inventories

All eyes will be focused on the payroll and unemployment data on Fri. Market will be looking for signs of recession. If the data come in better than consensus, then this rally is likely to have legs.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) Gaining Momentum

Here's a technical analysis of Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) chart. It is gaining momentum and looks like it is going to break out soon. It gapped up strongly today and closed above 200 days simple moving average with nice volume. Prior to this, in the last two months or so, it has also printed higher lows. A close above $82.5 with good volume would be a good breakout. But you'll need to measure your risk/reward to see if you prefer to trade the breakout or wait for the pullback.

At the moment, other stocks that I'm watching closely are: BEN, UTHR, SNDK, WYNN and ACI

Earnings reporting is coming to an end soon with the retailers rounding up the loose ends this week.

Mon: Leading Indicator
Notable earnings: EXM, LOW

Tue: PPI
Notable earnings: MBT, AZO, ADI, CSUN, HPQ, HD, TGT, SKS, PVH

Wed: FOMC Minutes
Notable earnings: BJ, EV, GYMB, NTES, SOLF, CRM, PETM

Thurs: Initial Claims
Notable earnings: ARO, ANN, BKS, DKS, GME, GPS, STP, PLCE, ZUMZ

Existing Home Sales

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Solar & Airline Sector Vs Crude Oil

Crude oil price has been setting record highs almost every day. Other than energy stocks, there are also 2 other sectors that are correlated to crude oil prices.

1) Solar sector
This sector is red hot! It is a beneficiary of high oil prices as everyone looks to alternative energy. Here's a 6 month chart of Oil Service HOLDRs (AMEX:OIH) vs First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR). Left scale for FSLR, right scale for OIH. Blue line represent FSLR, black line is OIH. See how they move in tandem. Positive correlation.

Other stocks in this sector includes CSIQ, SOL, JASO, LDK, STP, SPWR etc. TAN is recent ETF for this sector. But note that within this solar group, there are some stocks that exhibit relative strength than others. Example of stronger solar stocks include FSLR, CSIQ, SOL.

Today, Goldman Sachs raised their crude forecast for the second half of the year to $141 from $107 based on supply constraints, If this is materialize, solar stocks could be in for another ride up. But on a personal note, I do hope this will not come true. Here in the U.S gas stations, I've already started to see it cross the $4/gallon mark!

2) Airline sector
Oil is a big part of this business and their margins are getting squeezed by the surging oil price. Needless to say, it has a negative correlation to oil prices. See
Oil Service HOLDRs (AMEX:OIH) vs Continental Airlines, Inc. (NYSE: CAL) chart below.

Left scale for CAL, right scale for OIH. Blue line represent CAL, black line is OIH. Observe how these two usually moves in opposite direction. From what I know, CAL, SKYW and UAUA are the only 3 optionable airline stocks still trading above $10. But if oil prices continues to rise at such rate, its a matter of time these 3 stocks sink below $10 as well.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Recent Sector Rotation

Very interesting sector moves I observed recently. The last two weeks see money flowing heavily into previously weak sectors like Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology (see above). On the other hand, previously strong sectors like Energy, Materials and Consumer Staples see outflows.

Now the tide seems to have turned again based on last two days (see above). Energy and Materials regained their momentum while Consumer Discretionary and Technology lost steam. The question is can Energy and Materials continue to hang on to their lead? Or will Technology, Financials and Consumer Discretionary finally take over? Watch these sectors closely and let your trades follow the money flows

Earnings reporting is winding down and there are not many key economic data this week

Mon: ISM Service


Wed: Non Farm Productivity, Pending Home Sales
Notable earnings: BBBB, FWLT, FTO, RIG

Wholesale Inventory
Notable earnings: AEM, AIG, ATW, CELG, NVDA, OMG, PDC, PCLN, TBSI, TSO, TM

Fri: Trade Balance