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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

FOMC Takes Centre Stage This Week

The market is in a critical junction now. S&P 500 is near 1,400 level, which is an important resistance level. If you can break and follow through, there is a good chance of uptrend continuing. Let's see how the market reacts this Wed on FOMC statement.

Mon:
Notable earnings: V, BEAV, CVD, FMX, IHP, MTH, RSH, SOHU

Tue: Consumer Confidence
Notable earnings: ACE, AG, ADM, BYD, BNI, CRS, DVA, DB, FORM, ESRX, GPI, JLL, MHS, MA, NETL, PNRA, UA, X, VLO

Wed:
ADP Employment, GDP, Chicago PMI, FOMC Policy Statement
Notable earnings: GRMN, GVA, IR, PRU, MUR, NOV, NVT, OI, PG, SLAB, SBUX, SUN, SYMC

Thurs: Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core Inflation, Consumer Spending, ISM Index
Notable earnings: EYE, AOC, CAM, CPHD, CEPH, CHK, CI, DNR, DRIV, BOOM, XOM, HOLX, ITG, MRO, OSK, PDE, FAF, WBSN

Fri:
Unemployment, Non-farm payroll
Notable earnings: AIV, EOG, ICE

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

A Look At Visa's Technical Picture


Recently, I talked about why I like Visa Inc. (NYSE:V). Now, almost a month later and with more data points, we have a clearer technical picture of it. It cleared $67 resistance and last Friday, traded above $69, its first trading day high as well as all time high since IPO, supported by very heavy volume. Today, it touch the tip of the uptrend channel before pulling back slightly intraday. This paints a bullish picture of Visa, but now may not be a low risk entry point. Wait for a pullback or after earnings on 28 April. Take note that Visa is now optionable.


This coming week is filled with earnings reports and more earnings reports. Here's the calendar for the week.

Mon:
Notable earnings: AMLN, ACI, BAC, CNI, GCI, HAL, NVLS, NFLX, STLD, TXN, USNA

Tue:
Notable earnings: AKS, T, BHI, CME, CREE, CERN, ECA, DD, ILMN, LMT, MICC, BTU, PPDI, SIAL, TUP, UAUA, UNH, VMW, XL, YHOO, YUM, MCD

Wed:
Existing Home Sales
Notable earnings: APD, ACL, AMZN, ABK, AAPL, BIIB, CMG, GD, TEX, LRCX, MCO, NE, NTRI, PFCB, QCOM, R, RYL, BA, UPS, VAR, ZBRA

Thurs:
Durable Orders, New Home Sales
Notable earnings: MMM, AET, BIDU, BDK, BUCY, BG, CENX, COP, CS, DO, GR, FLIR, HME, IBKR, KLAC, LLL, LTM, MDC, MEE, WFR, MSFT, TRA, UNP, ZMH, YRCW, VSEA, SYNT, SYNA, MOT, OXY, POOL, POT, RVBD, HOT, SIRF, NTGR

Fri: Michigan Sentiment
Notable earnings: CVH

Friday, April 18, 2008

Options Expiration Tips

Yesterday, Tom Sosnoff from thinkorswim discussed some interesting nuggets about Options Expiration and Earnings. He highlighted 10 tips, and here are some of them:

-Market usually gets a huge move on Tue or Wed during the week of expiration and then remain rang bound for rest of the week

-If there is alot of buying pressure during expiration week, trend is likely to continue into the following week. Same applies for selling pressure

-Wed-Fri of Options Expiration week has buy side pressure historically. About 66%-75% of the time is bullish

-Monday after Options Expiration week is most liquid day

-April tends to be a bullish month around Options Expiration week

See here to get the rest of the tips. As always, these are based on historical data, and history does not necessary extrapolate the future perfectly. But it is interesting to be aware of these...

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Watch for Bellwether Stocks Earnings This Week

We'll see many bellwether stocks like IBM, Google, Intel, Citibank etc reporting earnings this week. There is also plenty of economic data coming out this week. Be very careful with your trading and be sure to check for earnings date when you are swing trading.

Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is reporting earnings after hours this Thursday. GOOG is always a high profile stock but its not my trading style to place directional bets on earnings. Here's a preview of GOOG chart:

After staying in a downtrend channel for three months, GOOG has finally broke to the upside with series of higher highs and higher lows since end March. The move up hit the 50 day moving average which acted as resistance. Right now, the 20 day moving average and $450 level is providing some support. GOOG may well stay within the range of 50 day moving average and $450 until earnings is out. But with Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), another giant on the Nasdaq announcing tomorrow, it may very well move GOOG out of this range.


Mon: Retail Sales, Business Inventories
Notable earnings: ETN, GWW

Tue: PPI, NY Empire State Index
Notable earnings: CSX, INTC, JNJ, STX

Wed: CPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Fed's Beige Book
Notable earnings: ABT, EBAY, GILD, IBM, JPM, JCI, EDU, KO, STJ, WFC

Thurs: Unemployment claims, Leading Indicators, Phil Fed
Notable earnings: COF, CAL, FHN, ESLR, GOOG, HOG, IGT, ISRG, MER, MAR, NOK, NUE, PFE, RS, SNDK, SYK, SPWR, TXT, UTX

Fri: Options Expiration
Notable earnings: CAT, C, HON, SLB


Bullish Watchlist: RRC, MDR, CSX, OXY, WLT, CMP

Bearish Watchlist: MHS, NIHD, PPDI, WFMI, WHR

Triangles: RL, OMG

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Alcoa Profit Falls On Higher Costs & Weaker Dollar


With Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) having officially kicked off the earnings season on a bad footing, the S&P 500 E-mini futures is down after market (see chart above). It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this earning season, given the challenging conditions faced by many companies on one hand, while on the other, many analysts would have probably factor in such assumptions in their valuation model.

Mon:
Notable earnings: AA

Tue: Pending Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

Wed: Wholesale Inventories, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks about U.S. economy
Notable earnings: CC, BBBY

Thurs: Trade Balance, Treasury Budget, Europe Interest Rate announcement, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks

Fri: Michigan Sentiment, G7 meeting
Notable earnings: GE

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Watchlist For This Week

Mon: Chicago PMI

Tue: Construction Spending, ISM Index

Wed: ADP Employment, Fed Chairman Ben to testify about economic outlook
Notable earnings: BBY, MON, KMX, RIMM

Thurs:
ISM Service, Bear Stearns Hearing by Senate

Fri:
Non-farm payroll, Unemployment, Fed Governor Kroszner to speak about global economic & financial challenges
Notable earnings: MOS, FDO


Potential Bulls: NFLX, WMT, BNI, HLF, GILD, JOE, NUE, SCHN, ILMN

Potential Bears:
IBKR, CEG, HUM, MICC, WFMI, MGM

Triangles:
RL, MUR, ATI, FAF, POOL, AIV, JWN