(function() { (function(){function c(a){this.t={};this.tick=function(a,c,b){var d=void 0!=b?b:(new Date).getTime();this.t[a]=[d,c];if(void 0==b)try{window.console.timeStamp("CSI/"+a)}catch(l){}};this.tick("start",null,a)}var a;if(window.performance)var e=(a=window.performance.timing)&&a.responseStart;var h=0=b&&(window.jstiming.srt=e-b)}if(a){var d=window.jstiming.load;0=b&&(d.tick("_wtsrt",void 0,b),d.tick("wtsrt_","_wtsrt", e),d.tick("tbsd_","wtsrt_"))}try{a=null,window.chrome&&window.chrome.csi&&(a=Math.floor(window.chrome.csi().pageT),d&&0=c&&window.jstiming.load.tick("aft")};var f=!1;function g(){f||(f=!0,window.jstiming.load.tick("firstScrollTime"))}window.addEventListener?window.addEventListener("scroll",g,!1):window.attachEvent("onscroll",g); })();

Friday, January 12, 2007

My MA Got Away


This is a really high probability setup (with many technical indicators aligned) which I missed because I was too stingy and maybe also alittle fearful.

Why is this a high probability set-up?
-6th bar on 15 min chart showed a somewhat bullish candle with long lower tail (would be ideal if it didn't close in the red), signalling possible reversal
-The low of 6th bar coincides with low of previous day
-Bars 7th-9th showed higher low, confirming the reversal. The consolidation was also on low volume

Entry Point and Why
-Break of 9th bar high
-The pink line on the chart shows a minor support level which turned resistance area today
-It is also the pivot point @ 104.8

So what happened?
I mentioned before that MA is on my watchlist. But I only saw this great setup at the 10th bar. Bid-ask was 5.7/5.9. I put in an order for Jan 100 Call @ 5.8, trying to get a better price (ya right, a better price and forgoing the profits??!!). The bid kept moving up and I didn't chase. I didn't chase because I was already 1 bar late into entry. I was processing in my head whether to chase or not, chase or not, and in my head I was thinking about $0.5 late (1 bar difference) is equivalent to about $0.3-$0.4 in option price as delta was about 0.8....that's alittle too much to play catch up. And as you can see from the chart, I missed the nice pop up, duh....

Where is a good exit?
I would have exited all if not some at the 12th bar because its near:
-Previous day high
-61.8% Fib retracement
-R1 (from pivot point calculation) @ 106.61

At this point, the call options that I had wanted to buy would have given me $1.0 profit per contract in a matter of last than one hour. What to say? Better luck next time, or maybe I should chase the stock if it is a really high probability one like this one.


2 Comments:

Blogger NO DooDahs said...

That's one of the reasons Bill O'Neil of IBD only uses market orders.

1:03 AM  
Blogger Simply Options Trader said...

Yup, market orders for momo stocks especially

1:42 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home