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Thursday, August 16, 2007

Are You A Contrarian?

Question: Is the worst of the market selloff over?

Almost half of the respondents are bearish and think the market will go lower. Recall there was a similar poll by CNNMoney after the 24/7 selloff. At that time,about 2/3 of the respondents expected the market to trade sideways or right back up. What a contrast in sentiment a few weeks make!

With the general public turning pretty bearish, is it time for the smart money to go contrarian? What do you think? I don't have a crystal ball, but in my opinion, I think not yet. As the extent of credit crisis is still unclear, another bomb may drop anytime, so any recovery will be shaky, unless the Fed steps in to take drastic moves. So I'm not calling for a bottom here, but I wouldn't be surprise to see a retracement bounce soon. The indices have had monstrous selling for the past few days and are reaching key round levels soon:

S&P 500: 1,400
DOW: 12,800
Nasdaq: 2,450

The indices made a new low yesterday and as I'm writing now, the U.S. futures point to a lower open, with world wide markets from Australia, Hong Kong, Japan and Europe all taking a dive. Let's see what the market presents us today...

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