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Monday, August 06, 2007

Fed Day to Make or Break the Market

I'm writing this with a sense of deja vu. Those who have been monitoring the market know what I mean. Seems like no stopping on the sea of red. If you have been trading PUT options, especially on the homebuilders and financial sector, well done and congratulations!

Right now the S&P500 is the weakest major index, having closed below the 200MA as well as retraced more than 61.8% of the swing from Mar low to Jul high. Both the Nasdaq and Dow still above 200MA, with Nasdaq having retraced more than 50%, while the latter retraced about 38.2%. The late Feb correction this year took about 2 weeks to recover and we are now at about the 2 weeks juncture into the sell-off.

Tuesday is Fed Day. I don't recommend initiating new swing positions ahead of this important day. Keep an eye on how the market response. This is a pivotal week and it could make or break the market.


Mon:
Notable earnings: JCOM, NVTL, WYNN

Tue: Nonfarm Productivity, FOMC Policy Statement
Notable earnings: CAR, CSCO, CREE, HET, FLR, EXPD, MVL, MLM, TAP, PZZA, PACR, PCLN

Wed:
Wholesale Inventory
Notable earnings: FWLT, HANS, INSP, TOL

Thurs:
Notable earnings: NVDA, URBN, ZOLT


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