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Friday, October 10, 2008

Where is the Market Bottom?


I mentioned in my last post that we are possibly close to a near term bottom, but we need further supporting evidence on the chart to confirm. Well, the market is still continuing its free fall and it seems that no government intervention can put a stop to it at the moment. The above 10 year weekly S&P 500 chart shows that it has broken the 950 level support. Since its a weekly, chart, we will need to see if it can close below 950 on Friday to confirm it has indeed broken. But chances are high that it will now retest the lows we see in 2002 - around the 800 region. Because if it can't defend the 61.8% Fibonacci, it will usually retrace all the way back. Don't attempt to catch a falling knife. Wait for confirmation before going long.

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