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Monday, July 21, 2008

Keep An Eye on XLF, XHB, XLY and XLE for Rally Strength

We discussed about the VIX and I gave my opinion that the market could turn last week. For the last few days, we've been seeing rallies in the market, especially in the weak oversold sectors like Financials, Homebuilders and Consumer Discretionary. We've also seen continued sell-off in Coal and Steel sectors after brief spell of consolidation. As I said on 9 Jul, watch for a retest to go short or get some Put Options. It retested and broke down again last week, hope you caught some of the action.

What about the week ahead? The major trend is still to the downside and watch for resistance at 1270 for the S&P 500 index. Also watch the Financials (XLF), Homebuilders (XHB), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Energy (XLE) sectors closely to see how long this rally can go.


Mon: Leading Indicators
Notable earnings: AAPL, BAC, CNI, EXP, SNDK, QLGC, STLD, TXN

Tue: FOMC member Plosser to speak on economic outlook
Notable earnings: BHI, BJS, BRCM, CAT, CE, CERN, CPO, CME, DD, HAL, ILMN, LXK, LMT, OXPS, PNRA, UPS, USNA, VMW, UAUA, WB, YHOO

Wed:
Fed's Beige Book
Notable earnings: AEM, ARG, APD, ATI, AMZN, ABFS, GSK, CMG, CNH, COP, EMC, WIRE, FFIV, FDG, GD, WFR, NTGR, NIHD, OSIP, PFCB, BTU, PEP, PFE, QCOM, RC, R, RYL, VAR

Thurs:
Initial Claims, Existing Home Sales
Notable earnings: MMM, BUCY, BG, BNI, COG, CENX, RIO, CYMI, ELN, LLY, ECA, FTI, FXL, ESV, GMT, GPN, GR, IBKR, ESI, LTM, NEM, SBNT, OXY, POOL, POT, RSH, RVBD, SIRF, SII, HOT, SYT, TZOO, TRMB, TMO, TRA, UNP, VDSI, UNP, VSEA, WYNN, YRCW, ZBRA, ZMH

Fri: Durable Orders, Michigan Sentiment, New Home Sales
Notable earnings: ACI, BEC, BDK, CVH, NFLX

2 Comments:

Blogger Russell Lechleiter said...

I am looking for a down move in the indexes to last until about July 31. I bought QQQQ sep 46 puts today at 2.08. Also bought NEM sep 50 calls at 2.53 as I believe NEM will rally for a few days here. Regards, Russell.

6:49 AM  
Blogger Simply Options Trader said...

Hi Russell,
I expect the indices to test the recent lows as seldom do we see a V-shape rally. If it prints a higher low or double bottom, then recovery is more real. But if it breaks lower, more downside to come.

10:41 AM  

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