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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Markets Await Uncle Ben's Announcement

The markets are getting used to 2%-3% moves each day and you will realise that what used to be wide range in the past is now considered the norm. Just take a look at the recent bars on the major indices. Wow...and as for the news about The Bear Stearns Companies Inc.(Public, NYSE:BSC), I was dumbfounded. I think its a ridiculous buy-out price. I had expected a buy-out announcement on Monday, between $20-$30. I have never imagined it to be on fire sale, at $2!

As I'm writing now, we're waiting for the Fed policy statement in about half an hour's time. Fed funds futures now priced in a 96% probability of a 100 bp cut, with a 75 bp cut fully priced in. The markets have been trending up so far since the gap up this morning on better than expected earnings results from Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). I wonder if it can have another leg up after the announcement as it looks quite extended on an intraday basis. Major indices are up between 2.5%-3% as of now. Can Uncle Ben gives the market what it wants?


Mon: NY Empire State Index, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
Notable earnings: BSC

Tue: Building Permits, Housing Starts, PPI, FOMC Policy Statement
Notable earnings: GME, GS, ADBE, LEH

Wed: Visa IPO
Notable earnings: NKE, MS

Thurs:
Phil Fed, Leading Indicators, Options Expiration (Quadruple Witching)
Notable earnings: FDX

Fri:
Good Friday (Markets closed)

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